By Ed Ballam
The verdict is in: Many fire service business leaders feel that 2022 was way better than anticipated, but the forecast for 2023 is much less clear, clouded by the lingering effects of supply chain issues, inflation, and a tight labor market.
The specter of COVID-19 no longer looms large over the marketplace like it had for the previous two years, but the fallout continues to cast shadows.
Bolstered by pent-up demand for products and purchases delayed by the pandemic and fueled by extra money in the economy from the American Rescue Plan, some businesses experienced record gains and sales that far exceeded expectations. Those record sales have become a sort of double-edged sword, however, as challenges in getting materials and parts to build the apparatus and equipment exacerbate increasingly long lead times. Some feel the demand for equipment and apparatus will continue into next year, as will the supply chain and labor challenges, driving even longer lead times.
“The best, most honest thing I can say is next year is such a toss-up,” says Jerry Halpin, co-owner and vice president of sales and marketing for C.E.T. Fire Pumps. “I am tossing the coin every day trying to figure out what’s going to be happening next year. It seems as though I am waiting for something, a shoe to drop somewhere .… I can’t say with any historical certainty that next year will be worse or better, but I can make a guess.” And that guess in his mind is a slight downturn.
“In terms of how much of a downturn, I would be misleading people if I said I knew, but it will definitely be a downturn,” Halpin says. “I see lots of people speaking now in a much more cautious way.”
Here’s a look at what business leaders are saying about what 2022 was and what 2023 might look like through their eyes.
C.E.T. Fire Pumps
While Halpin says C.E.T. Fire Pumps had a good year from a sales point of view, 2022 was challenging for the business, as it suffered a devastating fire in March that wiped out its primary manufacturing facility. The business quickly recovered, leasing new space near the headquarters, and a new facility was under construction in the late fall.
Even with that setback, Halpin says 2022 was one of the best years out of the past five years. That’s why he figures the kind of demand C.E.T. experienced in the past can’t be sustained through 2023.
“It’s not possible that next year can be as good as this year, in my opinion,” Halpin says. “In terms of how much of a downturn, I would be misleading people if I said I knew, but it definitely will be a downturn. I see lots of people speaking now in a much more cautious way—that’s both the customer’s distribution and end users; they are all definitely more cautious.”
Halpin attributes the expected constriction in his business to uncertainty in the marketplace. He says many fire departments and emergency services providers can’t afford to gamble on making purchases for items they won’t receive for months or even years from now.
“That’s the inflation side of it,” he says. “People are getting really tired of the inflation thing, and when they come in for pricing, the first thing they say, almost exclusively, is, ‘How long is this price good for?’ We do the best we can as a manufacturer to say we believe we’ll be able to hold the price until a specified time .… They know it’s the truth to the best of our abilities, but they’re sick of hearing it. They have to plan p