Every year, the issue theme for December is a forecast for the following year or basically what we see ahead. Most of the time, I try to relate to the theme as best I am able. In the case of serving as a foreseer of the future, I don't always feel comfortable because predicting the future is challenging-no one is really sure how things will go during the following 12 months. On the other hand, it can be a fun exercise to determine if you indeed have any talent as a prognosticator.

Richard Marinucci

One way to look at the future is to look at the past. Someone once told me that the best indicator of what lies ahead may be found in past history. By looking back, we may be able to look forward, if that makes any sense. We may have to look into this more deeply to see if we can make any sense of this.

Government Connection

Government and the fire service are not usually on the leading edge of technological advances. This is not to cast any aspersion but only to point out that government, particularly on the local level where the fire service resides, is not prone to investing in research and development. It relies on the private sector in most cases and then adapts as things fit the mission of government. For example, government wasn't the first industry to embrace computers for everyday use for virtually all employees. Now you would be hard pressed to find anyone in government not connected via this technological means of communication.

Of course, there are always exceptions to this in that the military often develops the latest and greatest with respect to technological advances. Thermal imaging cameras were used in the military long before they reached routine use in the fire service. Developments from NASA and the space program eventually made their way into the fire service and are now commonplace.

With that said, perhaps one way to look at the future is to consider where these two elements of society have been recently and some of the advancements they have made. In both cases, they continue to embrace technological advances to progress. They look for a competitive advantage to improve profits or, in the case of the military, to gain an edge on their enemies. There are ways to gain information through media, magazines, Web sites, and the like. Some of the items get more mainstream coverage while others are still released in more controlled ways.

Unmanned Aircraft

One example is the use of drones. The military has developed some very reliable and functional apparatus. Today there are many knockoffs, and the price range for these flying machines is huge. Consumers can buy small versions for recreational use for a relatively small price. There are much more expensive units that do a lot more and are more durable with longer flight times among other advantages. Regardless, the growing use of these devices would seem to indicate that their use will make it into government and the fire service more and more, likely sooner rather than later. It might be prudent for members of the fire service to look seriously at the potential uses and also some of the drawbacks. What can be gained and at what expense? This is just one example of looking at some emerging technologies and determining potential uses. It behooves professionals in this service to continually look for ways to improve, including methods made possible through technology.

Technology is advancing with videos, mapping, geographic information systems (GIS), spin tours, and other spatial options that can be beneficial in providing reconnaissance to responding personnel. Google and others can provide virtual tours of properties. This offers t

The Fire Apparatus Manufacturers' Association (FAMA) tries its best to stay informed about the big picture of the fire industry.

Jeff Hupke

The health of the fire apparatus and equipment market may not seem relevant to everyone, but the ability of the industry to turn a profit greatly affects the amount it can spend on product research and development. Better and safer products are very relevant, as they can improve the way firefighters perform their jobs. In this edition of the FAMA Forum, FAMA shares the state of the industry from the point of view of the fire apparatus industry.

Fire Department Survey

Earlier this year, the FAMA Education Committee completed its annual "Industry Outlook" survey. A total of 1,537 North American fire departments participated. Almost 50 percent of the respondents were chiefs, commissioners, or officers. The survey was geographically well distributed, with each of the Canadian provinces and United States represented.

Respondents were slightly more optimistic than recent years, with just more than 40 percent indicating they were expecting to make a major purchase in 2014. Ninety-two percent indicated they expected their major purchase to be an apparatus.

The biggest trends cited include a challenging economy, lack of funding, and reduced staffing. Thirty-five percent of those polled indicated that their standard operating procedures would change, down from 46 percent in 2010. Regarding funding, 32 percent of respondents indicated they had applied for an apparatus grant over the past two years, with three percent noting their applications were accepted. The numbers were 66 percent and 19 percent for equipment grants. Not surprisingly, 56 percent of the departments indicated that helping raise the overall awareness of funding sources was one of the most important actions that FAMA and Fire and Emergency Manufacturers and Services Association (FEMSA) members could take. More than half indicated that they have changed their apparatus specifications because of cost or budget restrictions.

The Education Committee uses the survey to try to identify the most important factors that contribute to choosing apparatus and equipment. As indicated in Figure 1, quality, safety, and price were the top three influencers, while the use of alternative fuels was at the bottom of the list.

The survey also asked the departments to rate the importance of different sources when they were seeking information on apparatus and equipment. Figure 2 shows that manufacturer salespeople finished at the top, followed by dealers and word of mouth.

Other observations from the industry survey include an increase in vehicle data recorder usage; the majority of respondents indicating that they use foam at some point in their operations; and a slight increase from previous years in respondents that indicated tank size, pump capacity, and cab size would increase over the next five years.

Apparatus and Equipment Provider Survey

Both fire apparatus and fire equipment manufacturers were also surveyed. Even though a higher percentage of company revenues is because of exports, the results indicated an increase in optimism with companies expecting improvements in revenue growth, capital investment, and hiring. The fire industry lags behind the general economy both going into and out of recession, so this is promising news that we may be finally coming out of the 2008 downturn.

Most concerning to member companies were insurance and health care costs. Seventy-two percent indicated they were affected by the economy. The top strategies employed to weather times of economic challenge were

At various places in this issue, you'll find prognostications about 2015 and how the fire service industry will perform in a variety of sectors-apparatus manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and so on.

Chris Mc Loone

As usual, the outlook from industry leaders is good. The various segments are expecting continued growth, albeit slow but steady, and no one is anticipating a year like 2008 when the economy tanked. That being said, anything could happen despite our best educated guesses for what the future holds.

All that news is good to hear. A healthy market means that companies can invest in research and development and reinvest in themselves to produce cutting-edge products that push the boundaries of ingenuity. A healthy economy in general means that firefighter inventors who consider taking a shot at creating a tool we can all use to make our operations more efficient and safer might be more inclined to take the leap because money will be available to them to invest in their projects.

My predictions for 2015 are a little different in that they revolve around our operations a little more.

First, apparatus operators across the board are going to slow down. Why wouldn't they? It's clear that driving too fast leads to preventable accidents, injuries, and sometimes death-both for firefighters and private vehicle operators. It's so obvious that everyone will slow down, right?

To make sure that apparatus operators slow down, the company officers sitting across from them are going to firmly ensure that the safety of the crew responding to whatever the emergency is supersedes the adrenalin coursing through the driver's veins and will order him to slow down. We hear it all the time that we don't do anyone in trouble any good if we get into our own trouble en route to a call. The good news is that our officers are going to ensure drivers slow down.

The wild cards are the personal vehicle operators who have become so distracted that they fail to see even the brightest warning light systems, chevron striping, or scene lighting and manage to run into us while we are driving or when we are already parked trying to protect an accident scene. What this means is that during 2015, drivers and officers are going to be even more vigilant than they are now in making sure we are looking out for these distracted drivers to avoid collisions with them. We would all like to think that the moms and dads driving their kids to school, soccer practice, band practice, and other activities were paying exclusive attention to the road, but these days we know that this just not the case.

As we all work to adjust the behavior of current drivers, I predict that in 2015 instructors all over the country are going to enhance their driver training programs to ensure that tomorrow's apparatus operators will get into fewer accidents and perhaps, more importantly, experience fewer close calls. Close calls are just that-close. And, they are that way only because of luck. Fewer opportunities for close calls should lead to fewer accidents, and I'm optimistic that 2015 will get us on the right track.

Is all that overly optimistic? I don't think so. We have worked so hard in recent years to reduce injuries and line-of-duty deaths at fire scenes that it's the logical progression to take a good look at the trips to and from incidents and identify where we can all tighten up. My first chief in the fire service used to say he was more worried about the trips to and from a scene and especially backing into the firehouse than the actual calls. For the leaders, don't be afraid to take your operators aside to say, "Let me tell you something a

  Looking back at 2014, the fire service industry had its highs and its lows. On the low side, we lost an apparatus icon, American LaFrance; experienced a major recall; and continued to suffer apparatus accidents, some of which included line-of-duty deaths.

By Chris Mc Loone

On the high side, the industry across the board has experienced consistent growth; fire departments continue to replace old or add new stations with designs built around maximizing efficiency, health, and safety of firefighters; and along with consistent market growth, fire service suppliers are continuing to develop new products. And, for fire departments, capital expenditures are finally receiving approval, often including multiple apparatus orders.

2013 vs. 2014

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For Dennis Mueller, chief of the Lake Havasu City (AZ) Fire Department (LHCFD), 2014 was a culmination of a multiple-apparatus purchase, the process for which began in 2013. "I spent the first half of the year developing a plan to purchase four new pumpers and one new quint," he says. "This plan took a lot of meetings with the various stakeholders prior to making the presentation to the city management and council. In July 2013, the City Council approved the plan, and the apparatus was ordered by the end of August." The department took delivery of the apparatus in April 2014 and the department spent six months fabricating compartments. "All units are in service and doing great with a lot less maintenance issues or downtime being reported," he adds. "So far, [2014] has been really nice."

Chad Newsome, national sales manager for PL Custom Body and Equipment Co., Inc., (PLCB) says, "In comparing 2013 and 2014, we have had consistent growth and demand, seeing a net gain that actually began in 2011 and has consistently exceeded expectations through today. 2015 will be interesting, as the rebalancing between reduced demand begins and the dividends of training and expansion pay off."

Mark Huber, president of Smeal Fire Apparatus Company, says that compared with last year, "We saw about 50 percent growth in the trucks that we sold in 2014 vs. 2013. So, we grew pretty significantly. What I'm seeing around the industry is that most manufacturers produced more in 2014 than they did in 2013."

As 2014 ends, Task Force Tips (TFT) and Performance Advantage Company (PAC) also expect to see increases in the books compared with 2013. According to Dick Young, founder of PAC, 2014 is up 10 percent above 2013, and Rod Carringer, chief marketing officer at TFT, says, "We are looking at a record year in 2014 with outstanding growth from all market segments-both domestically and internationally."

Challenges Ahead?

With such good news about 2014, one might think 2015 will be a breeze and good fortune will continue right into the new year. But, next year will not be without its challenges as manufacturers work to maintain the momentum.

"It is my belief that there are three concerns facing our industry in 2015: regulatory, pent-up purchasing demand reduction, and manufacturer instability," says Newsome. The regulatory concerns won't be as much of a concern for PLCB's Rescue 1 division next year, he says, but the impact of new regulations and new regulatory bodies form new challenges for the ambulance industry. "How each state addresses these changes through their own

There is still plenty of time to start and submit your application. The application period will close on Friday, December 5, 2014, at 5:00 pm E.S.T. Make every effort to submit your application early as no application will be accepted, for any reason, after the official close of the application. 

The following information is provided to help ensure your organization has every opportunity to submit a competitive application with the best chance for funding...

COST SHARE CALCULATIONS
AFG's authorization from Congress contained a change in the language as to how an applicant's cost share must be calculated. Historically, cost share was calculated based solely on the cost of the total project, multiplied by the applicants cost share percentage. The AFG authorization requires that an applicant's cost share be calculated based on the applicable cost share percentage of the "grant" (federal share) awarded. The AFG Program Office has made available a "cost share calculator" to assist applicants with identifying the appropriate cost share for their application.View the FY 2014 AFG Cost Share Calculator tool now. 

SUBMITTING PREPARER INFORMATION
FEMA requires that all applicants disclose the name, address and contact information of the person or organization, to include contracted grant writers, who are responsible for preparing the AFG application. Please ensure that this information is accurate at the time of submission. As a reminder, all applicants must attest that all information contained within the application, including preparer information, must be true, complete and accurate to the best of your knowledge. If you contract with a grant writer, and they either refuse, or provide advice to not list them in the preparer information section of the application, please notify the AFG program office.