Chris Mc Loone
If there's one thing the current economy has taught most of us, it's that there is no crystal ball we can use to predict when things are going to turn around. Even when things start to look like they're going pretty well, we again realize that very little of this is within our control. So, although things are pointing toward a 2014 that is better than 2013, the optimism remains understandably tempered.
Market Outlook
Many fire industry manufacturers are proceeding with caution considering the fragility of the economy. Things are better than they have been, but there is still a long way to go. "We are optimistic that municipal budgets will continue the improvement we have seen in the last couple of years," says Giff Swayne, president, Holmatro, Inc. "It is of course a fragile recovery, and there is still a good deal of pressure on fire department budgets. But, overall we are cautiously optimistic that the gains we have seen over the past couple of years will continue. During the depth of the recession and housing crisis, it was common to hear that departments were deferring purchases of new equipment because of budget cuts. But, we are not hearing that much anymore."
David Durstine, vice president, marketing, Akron Brass Company, says that his company is optimistic for the North American fire service and is looking forward to seeing industry growth in 2014. "Although we expect the growth to be mild, there is a pent-up demand as many fire departments have been delaying purchases or equipment upgrades over the past four to five years, and we are beginning to see a positive outlook on many city and state budgets."
Braun Industries is also looking forward to continued growth. "The economic indicators show a slight increase in growth for our industry in 2014," says Chad Brown, vice president, sales and marketing.
On the apparatus side, Bobby Williams, vice president, sales and marketing, Pierce Manufacturing, says federal demand will remain down, but the company continues to see evidence for improvement in municipal demand. "Some of the areas that were hit harder economically are now beginning to show signs of life," he says. "More of the larger fleet customers are starting the buying cycles, which is promising."
Economy's Effects
Of course, the general state of the economy will have an effect on the fire industry and municipality buying patterns. It's hard to pinpoint what the exact state of the economy is, but William Smith, president and CEO of Waterous, says, "Over the last two years, the economy has been stabilized and has been showing positive signs. As long as the government continues to support the fire service, 2014 will be a good year."
Keeping an eye on Washington, D.C., is key. "I wish that there was a defined state of the economy," says Swayne. "The gridlock in Washington, the uncertainty brought on by new legislations and regulations, and the roller coaster that is fiscal policy will play a role in our market in 2014. The problem is no one seems to have a clear understanding of where we are heading economically."
Durstine adds, "As we saw recently with the United States federal government shutdown, optimism could change at the flip of a coin or significant events beyond our control."
Braun cites the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as a potential influencer on companies in his market. "I think there is some hesitation in the marketplace with ACA and how that will impact the departments and agencies financially."
Swayne adds, "The recovery we have seen is fragile. Although the grants and Fire Administration funding seem to be intact for fiscal 2014, we need to keep a close eye on Washington and work with all industry stakeholders to ensure it stays that way."
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